" " Will They, or Won’t They? The Risk of Betting on the Fed – Financial Tips " "
Financial Tips
Advertisement
  • Home
  • News
  • Investment
  • Digital Payment
  • Banking
  • Contact us
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
  • Investment
  • Digital Payment
  • Banking
  • Contact us
No Result
View All Result
Financial Tips
No Result
View All Result
Home Investment

Will They, or Won’t They? The Risk of Betting on the Fed

admin by admin
December 1, 2022
in Investment


The world economy stared into the abyss on 16 March 2020. COVID-19 had sent country after country into lockdown, disrupting manufacturing supply chains and service sectors. Global US dollar liquidity had dried up, and recession risks were soaring. In Europe, credit default swaps on corporates traded with a default probability of around 38%. As confirmed COVID-19 cases soared from fewer than 10 in January to nearly 165,000, scientists speculated desperately on fatality and transmission rates.

Market participants, meanwhile, were on tenterhooks. As sentiment morphed from concern to panic, the crash began. The Dow Jones ended the day down nearly 3,000 points. The S&P 500 dropped 12%, and the NASDAQ fell 12.3%. It was the worst day for US equity markets since Black Monday in 1987.

Reprising its global financial crisis (GFC) playbook, the US Federal Reserve sought to calm the markets and extended immediate liquidity to prevent a pandemic-induced cross-market domino effect. Before the market opened on 16 March 2020, the Fed agreed to swap-line arrangements with five other central banks in an effort to ease the strain on the global credit supply. A few days later, the Fed entered similar agreements with nine other central banks.

But it wasn’t enough. Before the end of March, the Fed extended its provisions to even more central banks holding US Treasury securities, Saudi Arabia’s among them. These central banks could temporarily swap their securities held with the Fed to access immediate US dollar funding so they wouldn’t need to liquidate their Treasuries.

Liquidity support for US dollar borrowers will always be an option for the Fed. Such interventions show the central bank is committed to alleviating economic instability concerns and protect the economy from financial wreckage. In the short term.

But what about the long term? Does such swift — and often predictable — action heighten the vulnerability of the financial system? Does it create moral hazard for central banks and market participants?

Banner for CFA PC FinTech, Data and AI courses

The state an economy is in when crisis strikes is important. Thanks to stricter regulation and the evolving Basel Accords, banks today are more resilient and better capitalized than they were in the lead-up to the GFC. They are not the main concern. But the economy is holding more debt and is even more vulnerable to shocks. In 2020, total global debt soared at a pace not seen since World War II amid massive monetary stimulus. By the end of 2021, global debt had reached a record US $303 trillion.

This excess debt has created greater systemic risk, especially amid the recent surge in interest rates. Companies gorged on credit during the easy money era. Safe in the knowledge that policymakers would intervene during turbulent times, they failed to build a margin of safety.

Recent market volatility — the brutal faceoffs between bulls and bears — has been driven by speculation about what the Fed will do next. The back and forth has repeated itself often this year: Bad economic news sets the bulls running in anticipation of a potential Fed pivot to smaller hikes, while strong GDP growth or employment numbers feed the bears, raising the odds that the Fed will sticks to its guns. Now, as the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, the equity markets have caught a bid again on high hopes of a pivot.

The Fed first hiked rates this past March, so the current hiking cycle isn’t even a year old. Yet indebted firms are already showing strain. How many more hikes can they stomach, and for how long? Preventing runaway inflation is critical, but so is addressing the inevitable consequences through carefully crafted fiscal policies that take the whole economy into account.

Book jackets of Financial Market History: Reflections on the Past for Investors Today

As investment professionals, we have to anticipate the long-term challenge. Today, the threat is clear: The higher interest rate environment will expose financially leveraged corporations. That means that risk management has to be among our top priorities and we have to hedge the interest rate hiking cycle. Active asset and liability management require we look beyond the accounting impact and focus on the economic value of equity, among other metrics.

The bottom line is that amid economic turmoil, the solution to the imminent threat often creates more significant long-term dangers. We should avoid speculating as to when or whether central banks or regulators will intervene. We also need to remember that just as every economic downturn has unique causes, they also have unique cures.

If you liked this post, don’t forget to subscribe to the Enterprising Investor


All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.

Image courtesy of the US Federal Reserve


Professional Learning for CFA Institute Members

CFA Institute members are empowered to self-determine and self-report professional learning (PL) credits earned, including content on Enterprising Investor. Members can record credits easily using their online PL tracker.


Muadh Alhusaini, CFA, FRM, CAIA

Muadh Alhusaini, CFA, FRM, CAIA, is a co-founder and managing partner at Ehata Financial, a specialized independent advisory house focused on market risk management and hedging. Before pursuing the advisory career, Alhusaini spent nearly 10 years as a senior banker in the global markets and financing solutions with local and international banks. In his current role, he demonstrated the ability to mobilize robust, innovative financial risk-management solutions to top-tier corporations, sovereign entities, private equity firms, and publicly listed companies across the Saudi market. Alhusaini is skilled in designing and delivering development programs, seminars, and published columns focused on financial risk management, investment, and governance trends. He holds numerous board and committee memberships with leading institutions in Saudi Arabia. He is a CFA charterholder and holds the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) certification and is a Certified Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA).



Source link

Previous Post

New Redfin Report Shows Which Housing Markets Are Gaining—And Losing

Next Post

Feedzai: The State of Global AML Compliance Report

Next Post

Feedzai: The State of Global AML Compliance Report

Recommended

Xoom Adds Cross-Border Money Transfers to Debit Card Deposit Product

January 14, 2023

War and Ethics: What Are the Investment Community’s Responsibilities?

January 24, 2023

Don't miss it

Banking

Wells Fargo CTO joins Bank Automation Summit US 2023

February 2, 2023
Investment

Splitting the Risk: How to Manage Interest Rate Risk in Project Finance

February 2, 2023
News

These Are The 8 Most Affordable Markets To Invest In During 2023

February 2, 2023
News

Euro stablecoin launched in Finland, claims to be first approved in the EU

February 2, 2023
Digital Payment

Crypto 101: What are custodial and non-custodial crypto wallets?

February 2, 2023
Digital Payment

Optimism Plans to Enhance L2 Scaling Network With ‘Bedrock’ Upgrade in March  – Technology Bitcoin News

February 2, 2023

© 2022 Financial Tips News Hubb All rights reserved.

Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement unless specified. By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms & Conditions.

Navigate Site

  • Home
  • News
  • Investment
  • Digital Payment
  • Banking
  • Contact us

Newsletter Sign Up

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
  • Investment
  • Digital Payment
  • Banking
  • Contact us

© 2022 Financial Tips News Hubb All rights reserved.

Our Spring Sale Has Started

You can see how this popup was set up in our step-by-step guide: https://wppopupmaker.com/guides/auto-opening-announcement-popups/